Case:

Case statement: THB it is in Jonas Savimbi’s best interests to accept the result of the 1992 elections and demobilize UNITA, as opposed to leaving the peace process.

Background: the Angolan Civil War began in 1975 as the Portuguese relinquished control over the colony. Two primary groups fought this war; the communist group MPLA, supported by the Soviet bloc (i.e USSR, Cuba, etc), and the anti-communist group UNITA, led by the charismatic, ambitious, and shrewd Jonas Savimbi, who were supported directly by the apartheid South African government and more covertly by the United States. Savimbi’s movement was highly personalist and he cultivated his public image extensively, although he personally was not particularly ideological. The MPLA seized control of the capital and official control of the state early on, but the war drew out to a bloody stalemate in the late 80s, as UNITA had strongholds in the countryside of southeastern Angola. Moreover, most international backers became increasingly uninterested in military involvement as the war continued with no clear end in sight. 

Given that, the country’s MPLA-aligned president Dos Santos and Savimbi signed the Bicesse Accords in 1991, which laid out a process for the formation of a multiparty democracy, demobilization of the forces on both sides, and an integrated military. A major step of this process was the holding of elections in 1992; the first round of this election occurred, and the MPLA performed strongly. Dos Santos received 49% of the vote to Savimbi’s 40%, and was favored in the runoff. The UN deemed the election to be mostly fair, but there were valid concerns about some disenfranchisement of UNITA voters. 

You are Jonas Savimbi. While the Angolan government has made significant steps towards demobilization, you have not; this is partially known by the other actors (i.e the international community knows you haven’t demobilized as much as you are supposed to, but don’t know the extent to which you are militarily ready). You are faced with a choice; accept the result of the election, or claim fraud and pull out of the Bicesse Accords. 

Finally, a brief note on Angola itself. It is a low income country, but has extensive oil reserves (the production from which, controlled by the government, was vastly increasing– with that oil being sold around the world) and lucrative mining (which was partially UNITA controlled).